Potential Coastal Storm Being Monitored for Next Weekend

We are closely monitoring the potential for a coastal storm to develop near the Mid-Atlantic next weekend. While confidence remains low regarding exact impacts, there is growing concern that the storm could track close enough to bring at least some impacts to portions of the region. Latest forecast guidance, including both deterministic and ensemble models, […]

We are closely monitoring the potential for a coastal storm to develop near the Mid-Atlantic next weekend. While confidence remains low regarding exact impacts, there is growing concern that the storm could track close enough to bring at least some impacts to portions of the region.

Latest forecast guidance, including both deterministic and ensemble models, continues to signal the development of a system off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Recent model trends suggest a scenario in which the storm tracks close to the coastline, potentially scraping coastal areas. Under this setup, locations along the immediate coast and across Delmarva would be most vulnerable, while areas farther inland such as the Poconos and nearby higher elevations could see little to no impact.

Current probabilistic snowfall guidance highlights this coastal focus. The latest National Blend of Models indicates a 20 to 25 percent chance of more than 4 inches of snow across northern and western zones. Probabilities increase to around 40 percent along the I-95 corridor and climb to near 50 percent along the immediate coast. These probabilities remain subject to change as the storm track becomes better defined in the coming days.

If the storm does impact the region, timing would favor a late Saturday arrival, with effects potentially lingering through Sunday. In addition to snowfall, strong winds may accompany the system. Even if the storm’s center remains offshore, coastal areas could still experience gusty conditions capable of producing hazardous travel and marine impacts.

One factor that is not in question is the presence of a cold airmass. Temperatures are expected to remain well below normal through next weekend and into early next week. This cold setup would be more than sufficient to support snow at the onset of the storm, should it materialize.

At this time, the forecast remains highly uncertain, and residents are encouraged to stay informed as newer data becomes available. Small changes in storm track could result in large differences in impacts, especially across coastal and near-coastal areas. Updates will continue as confidence increases over the next several days.